![]() Had they continued at this rate then, under our rare events model, the expected number of mass shooting incidents since 1996 would by March 2018 have been 16.3. “Over the 18 years prior to 1996, mass shootings occurred here at a rate of about three every four years. That’s odds slightly worse than a ticket holder winning first prize in the NSW $5 jackpot lottery: 1 in 180,000. We tested this idea mathematically and concluded the probability of this 22-year absence occurring following the pattern in the preceding 18 years was about 1 in 200,000. The gun lobby argued that these were rare events and so it was possible that they were still rare, and nothing could be concluded. “After Australia introduced sweeping gun law reform in 1996, we saw 22 years without a massacre, having seen 13 in the previous 18 years. Professor Simon Chapman, Emeritus Professor, Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, comments: The SMC gathered expert comment on the attacks. ![]() Police say the alleged gunman, who appeared in court on Saturday, had a valid New Zealand firearms licence but appeared to have modified the weapons used in the attack. Multiple roads have been closed and police say the “risk environment remains extremely high”. People in central Christchurch have been urged to stay indoors, with all schools, Christchurch Hospital and the University of Canterbury on lockdown. ![]() Fifty people have died in Christchurch following Friday’s shooting at two mosques. ![]()
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